UFC 145 predictions

There are some stories which are timeless, stories which will be retold by generation after generation capturing the imagination of new audiences’ decade after decade, like King Lear or The Incy Wincy Spider. Sadly, the tale of Jon Jones and Rashad Evans doesn’t have that kind of longevity. Yeah, it’s got some Lear-esque backstabbing and relationship issues, and heck there’s some examples of perseverance that would bring a tear to at least one of the Incy Wincy Spider’s eight eyes, too.

But an intense few weeks of media appearances have bled that story dry.  Jones and Evans, like old war-worn men, have told the same story over and over again, only they don’t seem proud of it like a veteran would his tales of retrospective glory, for Evans it’s a chip on his shoulder, for Jones it’s the devil on his back holding him from the next step on his journey to greatness.  They’re so tired of talking about what happened between them that at the fight week press conference where they sat opposite each other, face-off style, they could barely bring themselves to discuss it. They just wanted to fight they said, we just want to see them fight, that is what this is all about after all. And fight they will, UFC 145 goes down it Atlanta, Georgia tonight, here’s my predictions.

Main Card:

Jones vs Evans

If they were no backstory to this fight it’d be interesting to see if as many people would pick Evans over Jones, I do think Evans is Jones’s biggest test to date but it still reads like a win for Jones on paper. Jones has a noticeable size advantage as he’s come to expect and I see him keeping his composure and striking from the outside with sparse but varied kicks and some fine-tuned boxing. I think Rashad’s got the better footwork of the two and he has the speed advantage that he can use to get on the inside and rough Jones up. For all this talk of wrestling I’m not sure how much of this fight is going to end up on the mat. I see Rashad coming out strong in the first but losing by TKO in the later rounds.

MacDonald vs Mills

Mills might make it into the top ten in the welterweight division but it’s difficult to see how he’s earned a shot at Rory MacDonald, a top prospect, after a win over Chris cope. I think MacDonald wins this one by decision.

Schaub vs Rothwell

Rothwell looks in great shape which is just as well because another sloppy performance like he gave against Mark Hunt wouldn’t favour too well will the UFC. I’m interested to see how well Schaub reacts after knockout loss to Big Nog, I think he’ll stay out of trouble and knock Rothwell out. Schaub wins by TKO.

Torres vs McDonald

You might as well flip a coin for this one, classic experience vs youth match up and I’m going with experience. McDonald might have the speed advantage but I think Torres is adept enough at using his range now to keep the younger fighter at a safe distance and win by decision.

Hominick vs Yagin

It’s amazing to think that it wasn’t long ago that Hominick was simultaneously nursing a forehead pregnancy whilst battling out a decision loss to champ Jose Aldo, after his 7 second loss to Chang Sung Jung I see him rebounding here with a technical performance and an early stoppage. Hominick wins by TKO.

Bocek vs Alessio

Alessio’s been around a long time, so long in fact that it’s hard to believe he’s still 32. His welcome back fight is against one of the most solid lightweights in the division, Mark Bocek. I think Bocek dominates this one with will-destroying grappling, Bocek by decision.

Prelims:

Browne vs Griggs – Browne

Brown vs Thompson – Thompson

Makdessi vs Njokuani – Makdessi

Danzig vs Escudero – Danzig

Wisniewski vs Clements – Clements

Brimage vs Blanco – Brimage

  -  21 April 2012

My take on Tate vs Rousey

Women’s MMA has never really garnered the interest of the mainstream fan since the Carano/Cyborg fight, and yet the general consensus surrounding this women’s 135 title bout is that it’s just as exciting, if not more, than last night’s UFC event. So, what gives? What makes this fight so much more enticing than, say, Coenen vs Carmouche? The same thing that makes MMA (reportedly) the fastest growing sport in the world: the human element. I mean sure, we all love fighting, but there’s a deeper reason more and more fans are spending their PPV money on UFC cards over boxing – personality, story, journey.

Whether it’s the stoic mystique of Fedor or the borderline misogynistic humour of Rampage Jackson, MMA is built on personality, Dana White being case in point. That’s not to say boxing doesn’t have those characters, it’s just that they’re so sparse and segregated amongst myriad weight classes, organisations, and promoters that it’s an effort just to follow them let alone care. The pioneering element of Zuffa’s business model, which admittedly may well be a coincidental product of their shared growth with the internet, is their accessibility. All the best fighters in the world are in one place, and they’re all actively encouraged to interact with social media; it’s never been easier to keep up with your favourite fighter. Heck, even the most ‘boring’ UFC fighters (Jon Fitch – 53000 twitter followers) have a strong online presence.

Women’s MMA though, whether it is the fighters or the promotions, has never really tapped into that well. Yeah, sure Carano’s attractive (and she’s a fighter?!!!) and Cyborg’s a beast, but what more do we know than that? Maybe it’s just that there’s never been a female fighter mouthy enough to make people listen? Well, enter Ronda Rousey: the post-modern MMA personality, a little bit of the Diaz brothers, a pinch of Tito Ortiz, and a sprinkling of Chael Sonnen make for the most intriguing female prospect in recent memory. Yeah, her emphasis on looks may play into the hands of the kind of teenage boys that lurk on MMA forums calling every other poster gay, discussing how easily they could take half the UFC roster in a street fight, and most irritatingly, that they only watch women’s MMA for its likeness to soft-core lesbian porn. But so what? Those kinds of people exist and they’re not going to go away, it’s just a fact of life that a sport involving two members of the same sex striking, clinching, and grappling in skimpy attire is going to be seen as sexually evocative by some.  Increased awareness and better promoting might however, over time, make those people develop a little more appreciation for what the girls get up to in the cage. Sure they might still pop a semi or two, but at least they’ll recognise the skill, hard work, and dedication it took to get it that way.

As for the fight itself, well, it’s a bit of a mystery. We just don’t know how Rousey’s going to cope if she doesn’t find Tate’s arm within the first round like she has her previous four opponents. In fact her amassed cage time doesn’t even equal 5 minutes – the length of a round. Going on that alone it’s a safe bet to say that Tate is the favourite if the fight goes beyond the 1st. But shouldn’t Tate be the firm favourite anyway? She’s had more cage time, she’s well-rounded, and she’s faced a much tougher pedigree of fighter. For me though, it’s a little naïve to suggest that Rousey’s screwed if she doesn’t get the armbar quick, if she doesn’t get it she’s not going to stop trying. She’ll try for it again and again if she needs to, that’s what she’s been doing all her life as a judoka, at Olympic level, too. Tate’s the safe bet, she’s got submission skills, good striking and solid wrestling, but there’s something about the enigmatic upstart that I can’t resist. Rousey wins by submission.

Other predictions:

Thomson vs Noons – Noons by decision

Daley vs Misaki – Daley by TKO

Souza vs Marunde – Souza by submission

Smith vs Sayers – Smith by TKO

  -  3 March 2012

Quick Alves vs Kampmann predictions

Two of the baddest (as in best) strikers in the welterweight division going at it and the Flyweight tournament, for free? Oh Momma UFC, you be treatin’ us real good. Here’s who I think is going to win:

Alves vs Kampmann

My love for Martin Kampmann has been steadily increasing ever since his decision loss to Diego Sanchez, there’s something about a man treated unjustly by the system that sends me weak at the knees. That reminds me, I really should reply to my prison pen pal Pedro, he’s gets out in a couple weeks and I promised him a secluded drive to the wilderness…

Whilst Kampmann has been consistently performing well, Alves has been a little rocky of late and he’s the kind of fighter that either turns up looking hot, or just not. What we do know is that he’s gained 30 pounds since the weigh-ins, that’s a big welterweight. 

Alves has the power to force Kampmann to go on the defensive which he can be prone to when put under pressure, but I’m still picking Kampmann; I think he takes a few big shots early but has the cardio to outpoint Thiago with a high tempo technical performance. Kampmann by Decision. 

Benavidez vs Urushitani 

Urushitani’s an underdog here and it’s no surprise, Benavidez has beaten pretty much everyone bar Cruz in the UFC’s bantamweight division whilst Urushitani’s been beating lesser competition in other organisations around the world. He’s not to be underestimated though, he’s a methodical striker, and he’s beaten TUF winner John Dodson, for what that’s worth.

This one goes to Benavidez though, it’s hard to pick against an Alpha Male fighter at the best of times but anything other than a finish for Benavidez seems unlikely here, especially with his superior wrestling. I think Benavidez takes it to the mat and wins by submission. 

Johnson vs McCall

The moustachioed  Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall may just be the toughest hipster on the planet, and Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is probably the worlds largest rodent, but speculation aside, we know that this is definitely the first ever 125 pound fight in the UFC. 

After using his superior speed to work his way to a title shot in the bantamweight division against Cruz, Johnson is the favourite but McCall is a talented guy too, having also gone the distance with Cruz back when he was a WEC fighter. 

McCall has solid defensive wrestling and his striking is pretty good, but unfortunately nothing quite lives up to his moustache, and when you’re getting overshadowed by your facial hair it’s time cut that fuzzy free loader off. I think Johnson wins this one by decision pushing that blurry-fast pace, mixing it up with takedowns and strikes to set up a title bout with Benavidez.

Philippou vs McGee

This hasn’t turned out quite as quick as I was hoping to, so I’ma make this one snappy.

Phillippou wins by decision. McGee is very well rounded and has excellent conditioning but I see him getting outpointed by Philippou’s impressive boxing. 

  -  2 March 2012

UFC 144 predictions

Saturday’s UFC 144 comes at you from Tokyo, Japan – “the home of MMA”. Wait, isn’t that what they were saying in Brazil? Either way Japan has played host to some of the greatest fights, and fighters MMA has ever seen. Whether the Japanese still have a thirst for MMA remains to be seen, but at least Jake Shields will be able to fight without hearing a boo every time he body hugs his opponent to the floor. The Japanese can appreciate a little bit of man love, or, you know, world class grappling. Learn from it Amurka. These are my predictions:

Main Card

Edgar vs Henderson

As I was perusing my twitter feed I saw an excitable Dana White link to a video likening Frankie Edgar to Rocky Balboa after his near miraculous comebacks against Gray Maynard. But as some prophetic cyber souls pointed out, Rocky ended up losing to Apollo Creed, which presumably means that Henderson is Edgar’s Apollo Creed. Now of course those individuals have misunderstood the premise of the comparison; it alludes to his spirit rather than his life’s uncanny likeness to the plot of an 80s movie franchise, but they may have a (badly expressed) point in that Henderson could be Edgar’s toughest opponent yet. This is quite something considering who Edgar has beaten. Henderson’s big, athletic, powerful, and has never been knocked out. His one weakness perhaps, was his lack of activity but in his last three energized victories over Bocek, Miller, and Guida he seems to have rectified that. But who dares bet against Edgar now? The guy has taken enough fight ending shots to last a career and he’s still the champ. So far, that’s Edgar’s greatest talent; the ability to take so much punishment yet remain composed (and conscious) enough to not only get off the stool and step out in the next round but to go out and fight with the skill and agility of a fighter who’s barely taken a punch. You can’t train for that.

When two fighters are as closely matched as this you have to look for the extraordinary qualities and whilst he may take more punches than them, in two fights Edgar showed more heart than all of the current UFC champions combined. But more importantly, Edgar has fantastic movement which is what led Pettis to victory over Henderson. I think Edgar has good enough scrambles to keep the fight standing where he’ll outbox and out move Bendo.  Edgar wins by decision.

Jackson vs Bader

It’s usually post-fight that we get to hear Rampage’s excuses but after weighing in 6 pounds over yesterday we got to hear them early, and with them the confidence of Rampage fans all over the world was eroded. But what does missing weight actually mean for the fight? In reality Jackson and Bader may well weigh pretty much the same come fight night, and despite Jackson missing weight he still had to cut a lot, in fact the most he’s ever cut according to his post weight-in interview on Fuel TV. So the disadvantage for Bader is likely minimal, if anything it’s an advantage; Bader gets an extra 50k for the same job, plus he’s gets an insight into Rampage’s camp and well-being he wouldn’t have otherwise gained had Rampage not made weight. Will this translate into a competitive advantage in the cage for Bader? I don’t think so. Despite Rampage’s somewhat worrying attitude to losing that he’s expressed recently I think this might be the most confident Rampage Jackson we’ve seen in a while. He knows Bader isn’t the same level of competition as Jones, Machida or Evans and will be looking to make a statement in front of a crowd he holds close to his heart. I don’t really see how Bader wins this, other than with some vastly superior movement and an iron chin, neither of which he has displayed so far in his UFC career. Rampage takes this with solid boxing and his usual indomitable take down defence. Rampage wins by TKO.

Hunt vs Kongo

This one’s going to go one of two ways: either we see the K-1 throwback we’re all hoping for, or Kongo fights smart and uses his octagon experience to wear Hunt down with a bit of manly embracing. Unfortunately the latter will probably occur. Whilst it’s good for notoriety I don’t think Kongo wants a repeat of that Pat Barry performance, as evidenced by his rather ‘safe’ approach against Mitrione. Fortunately though, Hunt’s grappling seems to be improving and I think (hope) he’s going to be able to avoid the mat/fence and pull off a knockout victory. Hunt wins by TKO.

Akiyama vs Shields

A year ago this would have been a dead cert, but since the by no means disgraceful decision loss to GSP and knockout loss to Jake Ellenberger, Shields doesn’t look like quite the contender he once was. But when you put those losses into context they don’t look so bad – the first was, well, against GSP and the second came just weeks after his father’s death. However no such excuse can be found for his lacklustre UFC debut performance against Martin Kampmann. Akiyama is no stranger to a UFC loss either, having gone three fights in a row without a win. Does that mean this is a must win for Sexyama? As long as he puts up a good fight I don’t think so; he’s just dropped to welterweight and more importantly he’s one of the most popular Japanese fighters the UFC has. I do think he’ll take a loss here though, Shields is still a top welterweight and, given the opportunity, which I think he’ll get plenty of, will take Akiyama to the mat and submit him.  Shields wins by submission.

Okami vs Boetsch

Yushin Okami may just be the least marketable top middleweight anywhere but Japan. Hopefully the presence of 20000 Japanese fans cheering him on (in their heads) will spur something special out of him. But that’s the thing about Okami; he doesn’t need to be spectacular because he’s got all the skills to beat just about anybody without taking the kind of risks that might get you knocked out by a resurgent underdog called Tim Boetsch. Okami wins by decision.

Hioki vs Palaszewski

The drop to 145 seems to have given Bartimus a new lease of life and Hioki didn’t look overly impressive in his UFC debut against Roop, but I still think Hioki has the chops to stifle Palaszewski’s aggressive style. Hioki wins by Decision.

Pettis vs Lauzon

Pettis wins by TKO. Pettis is a little too crafty to suffer the kind of fate Guillard did against Lauzon, and I think his movement and speed make this a tough one for Lauzon.

Prelims

Gomi vs Mitsuoka - Gomi

Yamamoto vs Lee - Yamamoto

Fukuda vs Cantwell - Fukuda

Mizugaki vs Cariaso - Mizugaki

Zhang vs Tamura - Zhang

2 notes   -  25 February 2012


Dereck Chisora and David Haye brawl at Klitschko v Chisora post-fight press conference. Say what you will about Chisora’s behaviour over the last few days, but it’s certainly made the heavyweight division a more exciting place. 

1 note   -  19 February 2012

Sanchez vs Ellenberger on Fuel

The UFC’s first Fight Night on Fuel TV takes place tonight in Omaha Nebraska, presumably in a barn of some sort. If you’re only interested in big name fights then this one might not be for you but keep in my mind that a) it’s free, b) fighters on cards like these tend to be a little more aware of where there career is at, and crucially, where it’ll be if they lose, c) it’s free, d) Stefan Struve’s fighting. Seriously, have you ever seen a bad Struve fight? And most importantly, e) it’s free. Here are my picks:

Main Card

Sanchez vs Ellenberger:
Diego Sanchez, “The Dream” who was once “The Nightmare” will be looking to knock Jake Ellenberger into “Sleep Paralysis” tonight in a bout which could decide who gets to take on Condit for the interim title if GSP’s layoff is as long as expected. Sanchez may be the fan favourite but it’s Ellenberger who’s on the hot streak after his knockout of a grieving Jake Shields, whilst Sanchez’s last win was a controversial decision over Martin Kampmann which everyone and their mother thought he lost. Which puts the UFC in a tight spot if Sanchez does win; how do you justify giving him Condit, let alone GSP? If only that pesky Stockton boy kept the weed in his sock draw we might have been treated to Diaz-Sanchez round two.

However, Ellenberger might spare the UFC that dilemma. I think this might be one dogfight too far for Sanchez; his face looked bad enough after his fight with Kampmann, if he takes as many shots against “The Juggernaut” he’s going to end up looking like one of Dali’s rejects. Both have great wrestling which usually means the fight will be contested on the feet and unless Diego plays it smart (I’d like to see the odds on that) Ellenberger’s going to pick him apart. Ellenberger via decision.

Struve vs Herman

Whilst you could say that Struve’s height is a gimmick, there’s not much he can do about it. Dave Herman on the other hand, can. Admittedly he did look pretty badass stepping up to the scales at the weigh-ins in all his hirsute glory with full beard and dyed body hair, but it’s a bit of a shame that fighters feel the need to create such gimmicks just to get themselves known. It’s not harming anyone, I suppose.

Don’t think it’ll be harming Struve either. He’s looked better and bigger with each fight and whilst Herman looked quite impressive in his debut against Einemo he hasn’t fought anyone like Struve before. Struve’s UFC experience, range, and submission skills make this a really tough fight for Herman. I think Struve takes this via TKO.

Simpson vs Markes
Simpson received some criticism for his past three fights - all decision victories, but he was coming off a two fight losing streak and you can hardly blame a guy for playing it safe under those circumstances. Ronny Markes is a big, young, Brazilian middleweight. Young and Brazilian is usually enough to make the UFC brass squeal, but BIG TOO?! They must’ve spaffed their pants.

I’m using the same system I use for picking prostitutes and going for experience over youth. My pick: Simpson via decision.

Miocic vs De Fries
Can unbeaten Miocic manage what his hero CroCop never could and be successful in the UFC? Can unbeaten De Fries manage what no Brit before him ever has and become a UFC champ? Answers are maybe and probably not.

Aside from having a surname that sounds like a Frenchman demanding fried potatoes, De Fries (!!!) does also possess some excellent ground skills and that’s his best chance of winning. Miocic though, is a division I wrestler alongside being a solid striker. My pick: Miocic via TKO.

Dillashaw vs Watson
I’m going to resist any lion vs Gazelle comparison because a) that’d be trite and b) with 6 fights Dillashaw’s no lion, more like a puppy/young dog  in that stage where they’re jizzing all over the carpet instead of just pissing on it.

My pick: Dillashaw via TKO. It’s a toughie, I picked Dillashaw in the TUF finale and he let me down, but I think he’s got the talents and team to go far in the division.

Menjivar vs Albert
Avoiding any “Prince Albert” related puns I’ll get straight to it. Again experience over youth, works every time - Menjivar via TKO – this is a step-up too high for Albert.

Prelims

Brookins vs Rocha - Brookins

Roberts vs Loeffler - Loeffler

Kuivanen vs Salas - Salas

Means vs Magalhaes - Means

  -  15 February 2012

Diaz tests positive for marijuana at UFC 143

Mike Chiappetta:

From NSAC: Mr. [Nick] Diaz tested positive for marijuana metabolites. A complaint for disciplinary action against Mr. Diaz has been filed.

1 note   -  9 February 2012

Talking Points From UFC 143

 

1.  Stephen Thompson looked mighty impressive in his UFC debut, knocking out Stittgen in the first round with a lead leg head kick. But in doing so he presented us with a problem I shall call ‘The Thompson Dilemma’; how do you celebrate a spectacular knockout spectacularly without spectacularly outshining said spectacular knockout?

2.  Herb Dean, we love you ‘n all, but consistency is a referee’s best friend. Deducting two points from Caceres after two warnings doesn’t make much sense in any case, but when you let Koscheck get away scot-free with those fingers in the eye after several warnings it looks extra bad.

3.  Roy Nelson, you’s a tough son of a bitch. But please, lose some weight and drop to 205, if only so I don’t feel like such a sadist watching you fight. I mean really, watching a fat guy with a big grey beard take immeasurable amounts of punishment and still keep on coming made me feel like I was witnessing the result of a dodgy Craigslist ad.

4.  That said, it was great to see Werdum look so comfortable with his striking, he’s a definite problem for any UFC heavyweight.  

5.  I had the main event 48-47 for Diaz, under the thinking that he won rounds 1, 2, and 5. It was by no means a robbery though; I think Condit won rounds 3 and 4 more decisively than Diaz won rounds 1 and 2. Two judges scored it 49-46, which I don’t understand, but then who does really understand MMA scoring? Diego Sanchez won a decision against Martin Kampmann with the same forward pressure as Diaz, only much, much less effective.

6.  Condit’s strategy was perfect and he implemented it impressively. GSP-Condit doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as GSP-Diaz but I have a sneaky suspicion that Diaz will get there eventually.

7.  Diaz isn’t done with MMA. We’ve seen that post-fight shtick from fighters before and it rarely rings true. Diaz has the chops to beat anyone in the division; he just needs a plan B for when strategy savvy fighters like Condit work him out. He also needs his brother Nate to stop telling him he’s winning a highly competitive fight going into the last round. 

1 note   -  5 February 2012

UFC 143 Picks



Main Card

Diaz vs Condit
It doesn’t feel like a Diaz fight week without some Helwani-threatening or hat flipping pre-fight action, but Nick’s kept it decidedly cool in the run up to the Super Bowl weekend bout. But thanks to the UFC’s Primetime we’ve gotten our fair share of surprisingly concise introspection (rumour has it the editor now resides in a darkened room, rocking back and forth) from Diaz, seriously though, the “in order to love fighting I have to hate it” bit was brilliant. Meanwhile, Albuquerque’s biggest nature over nurture advocate, Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit surprised no-one with his dignified stoicism, but then Condit’s never been one to surprise with his words,  his fists do that just fine. The winner here gets the interim welterweight title and first dibs on the recently personified Canadian fight-bot Georges St. Pierre.

My prediction: Diaz by TKO. I’m not discounting Condit’s technical ability and power but I don’t see him being able to give and take with the same intensity as Diaz. The Diaz of 2012 looks like he’s hardwired not to lose, don’t be surprised to see him dropped a couple of times but I can’t envisage him getting knocked out. Diaz weathers an early storm and knocks out Condit with punches in bunches in the late rounds.

Nelson vs Werdum
After losses to two top level heavyweights Nelson rebounded with a depressingly predictable knockout of fight legend Mirko Cro Cop in his retirement bout. His opponent, Werdum, famously started the painful derailment of MMA demi-god Fedor Emelianenko in Strikeforce. Now I don’t know about you, but pitting two legend killers against each other sounds like universal rule-bending to me. Since when was it the UFC’s place to fuck with the cosmos? So if a basketful of kittens suddenly drown in a river or an orphanage sets ablaze, I’ll be looking at you Joe Silva. Although I wouldn’t rule out the Cro Cop/Fedor fans, cause those mo’fuckers will do anything.

My prediction: Nelson by decision. Werdum has a knack of disrupting a striker’s rhythm just enough to make openings for himself, but never quite enough to fully capitalise on them. Nelson can take just about any shot, is great on the ground, and can knock anyone out if they give him the opportunity. I think Nelson keeps this one on the feet and grinds out an exhausting decision.  

Koscheck vs Pierce
It was probably the same dope who suggested that blonde jheri curls were a good look that decided that the UFC should book fights based on a twitter spat. I mean, I know Koscheck’s been eager to fight again and the top of welterweight mountain is a tad jammed just now but this feels like a fight to tide him over. But then, Fitch vs. Hendricks felt a bit like that too.

My prediction: Koscheck by TKO. Pierce isn’t bad by any stretch but Koscheck’s better in every department. I think Koscheck drops Pierce and finishes it on the ground.

Barao vs Jorgensen
This is one not to miss, two top bantamweight contenders, the winner more than likely will be the next challenger to Dominic Cruz’s belt.

My prediction: Barao by TKO. I like Jorgensen a lot but Barao looks like a different mould of fighter, he may not have faced the calibre that Jorgensen has but his demolishment of Brad Pickett made it easy to buy the hype. Barao avoids the takedowns and catches Jorgensen early for the knockout.

Herman vs Starks
Here in Britain if you’re ‘starks’, you’re naked, and I think the unbeaten wrestler Clifford Starks is going to get exposed here. God, that was dreadful.

My prediction: Herman by decision. More experience, better all-round skills.

Prelims

Poirier vs Holloway - Porier

Caceres vs Figueroa - Caceres

Brown vs Cope - Brown

Riddle vs Martinez - Riddle

Natal vs Kuiper – Kuiper

Stittgen vs Thompson - Thompson

  -  4 February 2012

UFC on Fox 2 - Predictions

With the first UFC on Fox fight ending quicker than most people’s first time, it’s hardly tinfoil hat territory to suggest that it’s no coincidence that the main event is so grappler-heavy.  And what better way to introduce the less palatable aspects of the sport to the masses than with some of the best/worst UFC personalities on the roster? UFC on Fox 2 takes place in Chicago at 1am GMT/5 pm ET/2 pm PT, the bad news is Rogan and Goldie will be extra patronising on account of the MMA noobs network TV inevitably supplies, the good news is some blokes are gonna hit each other and not get told off for it. Here are my predictions:

Main Card
 

Evans vs Davis:
First of all, if there’s a man with broader shoulders than Phil Davis I’d like to meet him. And stare at his body for an inappropriately long amount of time. Maybe take a few pictures, too. Perhaps run my finger across his sculpted frame. Feel the icy breeze of his supernatural breath upon my skin as I measure his chiselled physique with a hesitant touch. All in the interest of science, of course.  Speaking of science, the talking from these two has all felt a little scientific at times; lots of stats and evidence regarding wrestling credentials have been thrown about in a tedious attempt to determine who’s the better wrestler, but very little speculation has been shown to their actual MMA records. Which is odd considering that, as far as I know, they’re fighting in a cage, not a high school sports hall.

As far as I’m concerned their respective MMA careers tell us all we need to know about how this fight’s going to go. Evans has only lost once and that was against Machida - one of the best strikers in the sport. Phil Davis doesn’t have anything near that kind of striking potency yet, granted he may be the best wrestler Evans has ever faced but does Davis have what it takes to win this one on his wrestling ability alone? I don’t think so; Rashad’s striking gets better and better and whilst Davis may have the better pure wrestling I think Evans is capable of getting up enough times to find a way to win. I’m going with Evans via late TKO.

Sonnen vs Bisping
The all American Man of Steel versus the The Count, the brazen Englishman… It’s hardly inspired stuff is it? With Chael Sonnen’s pro-wrestling personality now in full-time occupancy, complete with fake belt and scripted zingers it’s hard to believe he was once just another wrestler working his way through the WEC’s middleweight division. I always enjoy watching the guy in interviews and press conferences, he’s just about the most entertaining fighter to listen to (even if he does reuse some of his lines), but I’m not sure how long the hard-core MMA fan base or the media is going keep up with it. Those MMA virgins who’ll be watching for free on network TV, though? Oh they’ll lap it up, they love all that. Or so everybody seems to think. Time will tell.

Bisping’s batted off the Oregonian’s witticisms surprisingly well, getting in a few verbal jabs of his own here and there. It’s not often Bisping is so overlooked in a fight, half the questions in the run up to the fight have been about a potential Sonnen-Silva rematch in Brazil, and I think Bisping may even be enjoying it. That might have something to do with him seeing a sports psychologist, or it might not, I’m not a psychologist. I’m not sure his demeanour is going to help him an awful lot when it comes to the fight, though. Bisping’s such a consistent performer that it feels odd to see him as such an underdog but the logic that ‘If Anderson couldn’t knock Sonnen out, Bisping won’t’ sounds pretty good to me.  I don’t see Sonnen taking down Bisping with the ease he did against Stann but it’s going to happen. I think they’ll go the distance and Sonnen will win via wrestling and those cool ear slaps that he does.

Maia vs Weidman
This is a toughie. Everyone’s pretty hot on Weidman and everyone’s usually right. The trouble that I have with picking him is that his main weapon is his submissions and he’s facing perhaps the best BJJ practitioner in the weight class. Maia’s hands have gotten much better too, but he hasn’t submitted or finished anyone since his triangle choke of Chael Sonnen in 2009. My gut is telling me to go with Weidman, and my gut tells me lots of great things like “have a burger tonight” and “no a whole packet of biscuits isn’t too much, you can run it off tomorrow!” but I also usually regret the things my gut tells me to do, so I’m going to go with my head. Which also says Weidman. I think he can win this one with his wrestling which might be tempting fate against someone like Maia but as we’ve seen Weidman’s no slouch with the subs. Weidman via decision.

Prelims

Dunham vs Lentz – Dunham and also potential Fight of the Night

Russow vs Einemo - Russow

Swanson vs Roop - Roop

Oliveira vs Wisely - Oliveira

Johnson vs Roller - Roller

Beltran vs Johnson - Beltran

Camozzi vs Jacoby - Camozzi

  -  28 January 2012